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Below is an ongoing record highlighting notes from select HLT investor presentations and earnings calls (newest content shown first).

Second Quarter 2019 Earnings Call, 7/24/2019


  • 17 distinct brands, loyalty program, and exceptional customer service driving market share gain
  • System-wide RevPAR increased 1.4% in 2Q
  • We’re modestly adjusting our full-year RevPAR guidance to 1% to 2% driven by consistent US RevPAR and slower international RevPAR
  • Increasing adjusted EBITDA growth given significant contribution due to unit growth
  • Of more than 450 hotels opened in 2018, 75% have reached RevPAR index of 100 or higher
  • Expect to increase pipeline by low to single digits. Forecasted signings of 110,000 rooms in 2019
  • Current pipeline of 370,000 rooms, or over 40% of our existing base
  • We believe the greatest development opportunity lies in the mid-market
  • Forecast to grow our luxury portfolio by over 15% this year
  • Rooms under construction accounting for more than half of our current pipeline
  • Honors occupancy of 63% up 500bps and now have 94mm members
  • 2019 – expect RevPAR growth of 1-2%
  • 2019 EBITDA of $2.28-2.31Bn, up 9% at the midpoint
  • Diluted EPS of $3.78-3.85
  • For 2019, expect to return $1.5-1.8Bn in capital to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks
  • Q&A with Sell-side Analysts
  • Loyalty partnerships
    • A partner like Lyft will buy points to give to their customers to use when they purchase LYFT rides
    • The more engagement, the more share of wallet we get. So goal is get lower level members more engaged, collecting and using their points, etc
  • What degree is guidance affected by trade tariffs and political uncertainty?
    • Answer is yes. Uncertainty on trade is having some impact.  More people are putting a caution flag up
    • Reason we brought the high end of the guidance down was because we thought there was an opportunity for the world to get better, but looking at recent trends, it looks tough for the world to get much better into year end
    • For 2020, my best intel is that I would project out the current trends into next year
    • Would think about 2020 similar to 2H of 2019
  • Opportunities for new brands?
    • Tru is a megabrand – think it will be the largest brand in the world when all said and done. Tru is serving a much bigger segment of demand than Hampton
    • Tru is serving 35-40% of all demand
    • We won’t be launching 3 new brands per year. We will probably launch a luxury lifestyle brand in next year
  • US RevPar consistency
    • Third quarter has a very strong group business base
    • Also comps for 3Q is easier
    • I wouldn’t read too much into the slow June
  • IRRs that developers are underwriting to today vs 1-2 years ago
    • Think returns developers expect have largely been consistent
    • 10% of deals in pipeline have key money
  • Luxury
    • Out of our 6000 hotels, 400-500 would count as luxury by a broader definition. 200 of these are resort hotels
  • 2020 capital return potential with RevPAR and pipeline growth slowing
    • Pipeline growth is not slowing. Ought to assume that cash flow will grow slightly, so capital available to return to shareholders should look similar in 2020 vs. 2019
    • Every 1% in RevPAR assumption is worth about $10-12mm of free cash flow
    • Approach will be to maintain 3-3.5x leverage range
    • There is also the opportunity to lever above this range, but that is the more opportunistic side of it (if there is a major dislocation)
  • Tru growth coming from Hampton?
    • It is really a different segment.  Hampton is also gaining share and is the highest average market share brand we have

Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Call, 10/24/2018


  • Adjusted EBITDA was at high end of guidance range and EPS exceeded expectations
  • YTD have returned more than 8% of market cap to shareholders in the form of $1.7Bn in share buybacks and dividends
  • System-wide RevPAR up 2%, entirely by rate gains
  • Broader industry fundamentals remain favorable with solid corporate transient RevPAR up 3% and continued strength in group business
  • Leisure transient was softer than expected due to weather impacts and meaningful impact from calendar shifts. Accounting for holidays and weather impacts, we estimate 2nd and 3rd quarter RevPAR trends were steady
  • Updated full year RevPAR guidance range of 3.0-3.5% vs. 3.0-4.0% prior guidance range
  • 2019 – positive macro factors suggest positive lodging dynamics ahead with moderating supply growth
  • Group business for next year up mid to high single digit with early corporate rate negotiations showing healthy yoy trends, so expect RevPAR growth of 2-4% for 2019
  • Development pipeline – 2,400 hotels at end of 3Q totaling 371k rooms
  • On track to sign a record 110k rooms in 2018 and deliver 6.5% unit growth in 2018 and again in 2019
  • Launched our newest brand, Motto by Hilton, which is an affordable brand that combines elements of micro-hotels and urban lifestyle products. At full scale, Motto could total several hundred hotels
  • In 3Q, added 3.7mm new Hilton Honors members, up 16% yoy and Hilton Honors members account for 60% of total occupancy
  • Web-direct platforms remain the fastest growing booking channels
  • For 2018, we forecast 2-2.5% RevPAR growth in the US
  • 3Q Europe RevPAR up 6.9% driven by strength in Turkey and Russia
  • 3Q AsiaPac RevPAR up 5% with China up 8%
  • Expect to return $1.8-1.9Bn in capital to shareholders for 2018
  • Q&A with Sell-side Analysts
  • 2019 RevPAR expectations and segment trends?
    • Macro data such as non-residential fixed investment, which has been strong this year and forecasted to be strong next year, correlates well with hotel room demand
    • Early expectation is for 3% RevPAR growth at the midpoint for 2019
    • Seeing very healthy growth in all major segments. Business transient picked up from 0-1% to 2-3%.  Leisure transient still strong in 3% range and group business ticking up into the 3-4% range
    • Conversations with big corporate customers for 2019 around both volume and rate have been positive
  • Economic slowdown?
    • Haven’t seen much of a change. There were typhoons in Asia and China slowing a bit, offset by better growth in the US
    • We have not seen signs of global slowdown
  • Meeting planner feedback for 2019?
    • Conversations are more positive now than they were a year ago
    • Special corporate (10% of business) indicate companies willing to travel more and spend more
  • Worries about development pipeline?
    • HLT is 11% of the US market but we are getting 25% of the construction pipeline so we are getting our fair share, but deals are getting harder to get done due to cost increases
    • 2018 will be up 10% in terms of cost to build
    • Credit is incrementally tighter and interest rates incrementally higher
    • US supply growth is supplying but international markets such as Asia are picking up
  • M&A
    • Has not made sense historically vs. what HLT can do organically to build new brands
  • Deal terms being offered?
    • In the US where deals are getting tighter, deal terms (with franchisees) are getting incrementally tougher but not in a material way
  • Capital allocation
    • Leverage target is still 3-3.5x
  • Conversion activity
    • Have seen a minor acceleration in conversion activity and expect 20% of unit growth to be conversions for 2018. This is consistent with historic levels of 19-25%.  Conversions peaked in the high 30s following the financial crisis
    • We used to have only one conversion brand – DoubleTree, but now have Tapestry, Curio, and soon some soft luxury brands
  • Group business
    • Looking to be up 8-9% for 2019, but normalizing for change in commission structure, group growth would more likely have been in the 5-6% range
  • Luxury brands
    • Luxury has a halo effect for the family of brands so spend a disproportionate amount of time on it
    • Waldorf – 64 open and 38 in the pipeline