The Atlanta Fed downgraded their forecast for Q1 GDP to 0.9% growth from 1.2% previously. The Atlanta Fed has reduced their view on Q1 GDP due to a modest reduction in consumer spending growth and an adjustment to one of their forecasting factors following the employment report.
Paradoxically, optimism and confidence indicators remain at all-time highs while economic growth appears to still be fairly mixed per this GDP report.
From the Atlanta Fed:
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 0.9 percent on March 15, down from 1.2 percent on March 8. The GDP growth forecast declined 0.3 percentage points on Friday when the February estimate of the model’s latent dynamic factor used to forecast yet-to-be released GDP source data declined after the employment situation release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The forecast for first-quarter real consumer spending growth inched down from 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent after this morning’s retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Consumer Price Index release from the BLS.”
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