Moments ago, the Q1 GDP growth estimate by the Atlanta Fed was revised down to 1.3% from 1.8% previously. At the beginning of the year, GDP growth estimates for Q1 were in the 2.7-3.0% range, but after a sequence of lower than expected economic data points, growth estimates have been revised down. This stands in stark contrast to survey based measures of economic output (such as PMIs, small business confidence, consumer confidence), which have increased materially since the election. It remains to be seen whether actual economic output will improve to meet increased confidence or whether confidence will deteriorate to become more consistent with modest economic output.
From the Atlanta Fed:
“The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.3 percent on March 7, down from 1.8 percent on March 1. The forecasts for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real nonresidential equipment investment growth fell from 2.1 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively, to 1.8 percent and 7.3 percent, respectively, after Thursday’s motor vehicles sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth fell from -0.50 percentage points to -0.72 percentage points after yesterday’s manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau.”
Disclaimer– This article is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial or other advice. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Please read full disclaimers here.